A December 2023 poll conducted by the Global InfoAnalytics places John Dramani Mahama ahead of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the December 2024 presidential elections.
According to the survey, 53.2% of Ghanaians who were willing to vote would have voted for the National Democratic Congress’s John Dramani Mahama, with Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, securing 29.6% of the polls.
The survey, Global InfoAnalytics indicate, excluded voters who were not willing to vote.
Meanwhile, an addition of persons who were unwilling to vote to the poll surged Mahama’s votes by 0.4%, significantly reducing Bawumia’s tally by 3.7%.
“The December 2023 national poll shows that JDM leads with 53.2%, DMB, 29.6% and AKK, 7.7%, 0.9% others, 4.3% and 5.3% were undecided. This model excludes the views of voters who said they will not vote.
“However, when the results of the poll is analysed using all voters model (including the views of voters who said they will not vote), the results looks significantly different for DMS. Under this model, JDM moves to 53.6%, DMB drops to 25.9%, AKK drops to 7.1%, Others, 4.1%, Undecided, 5.1% and I will not vote 4.2%,” the poll shows.
Find below the remaining analysis resulting from the poll.
The poll using all voters model, shows that among those who self-identified as NPP, 18.4% intend to vote for JDM, 65.9% will vote for DMB, 8.0% will vote for AKK, 2.5% will vote for other candidates, 2.3% are undecided and 2.9% say they will not vote. For NDC, 94.7% will vote for JDM, 3.0% will vote for DMB, 0.6% for AKK, 0.6% for other candidates, 0.5% are undecided and 0.6% say they will not vote. For Floating voters, 47.1% will vote for JDM, 17.5% for DMB, 10.5% for AKK, 6.2% for other candidates, 11.5% are undecided and
7.2% will not vote.
For those who support other smaller parties, 13.8% intend to vote for JDM, 3.1% for DMB, 39.6% for AKK, 27.0% other candidates, 10.1% are undecided and 6.3% will not vote. Among those who did not disclose their party affiliations, 32.2% will vote for JDM, 15.0% for DMB, 12.7% for AKK, 10.6% other candidates, 15.7% are undecided and 13.8% will not vote.
Now looking at the coalition of each of the candidates shows that for those who intend to vote for JDM across the country, 10.3% are NPP supporters, 66.1% are NDC, 15.8% are Floating Voters, 0.7% other parties and 7.1% from those who did not disclose their party affiliations.
For DMB coalition of voters, 76.5% are NPP, 4.3% are NDC, 12.1% are Floating Voters, 0.3% other parties and 6.8% are those who did not disclose their party affiliations.
For AKK, 34.0% are from the NPP, 3.3% are from the NDC, 26.6% are floating voters, 15.1% from other parties and 21.1% are from those who did not disclose their party affiliations.
For those who say they are undecided, 13.4% are NPP, 4.0% are NDC, 40.6% floating voters, 5.4% other parties and 36.6% did not disclose their party affiliation.
Crucially for turnout, among those who say they will not vote, 21.1% are NPP, 5.3% are NDC, 30.8% are floating voters, 4.0% other parties and 38.9% did not disclose their party affiliations.
What is accounting for the differences in the polls between the likely voters’ model and all voters’ model?
Our next poll starts on 22nd March 2024, will the numbers shift significantly 8 months before the December 2024 poll? Follow Global InfoAnalytics for more polls and analytics.
