Story by: Political Desk
In a comprehensive joint survey by the National Election Strategist (NES), Hon. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has taken a substantial advantage over Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the NPP presidential primaries. NES’s pre-election survey of 8,329 delegates, conducted from September 23 to October 25, found 50.59% of the delegates supporting Hon. Agyapong, compared to 46.8% for Dr. Bawumia; the other two candidates draw 1.6%, and 1% are undecided.
This was contained a press release issued by the National Elections Strategist agency and signed by its lead Strategist Nana Akuoko-Biney copied to the www.thenewindependentonline.com in Accra dated 31st October, 2024.
The release indicated that, the Assin North Member of Parliament contesting for the Presidential slot of the ruling party, New Patriotic Party (NPP) is in a comfortable lead with 50.59% to 46.8% for the Vice President, Dr. Bawumia and likely to beat Mahama in Elections 2024.
NPP Presidential Primaries
Candidate %
Kennedy Ohene Agyapong 50.59
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia 46.8
Owusu Afriyie Akoto 1.1
Francis Addai-Nimo 0.50
Undecided 1
100
| N | 8,329 |
NOTE: Based on an eleven-question turnout scale and the assumption that 85% of the voter population will cast their vote.
The survey shows a close contest between Hon. Agyapong and Dr. Bawumia. According to the findings from the survey, there are signs that the turnout could be considerably higher than it was in 2014, the year that voter participation peaked since the NPP’s founding. The report also predicts higher voting rates among youth, who overwhelmingly support Hon. Agyapong. However, it also shows indications of higher-than-expected turnout overall.
Regional Breakdown
Some significant findings from the study show that Dr. Bawumia is dominating in the northern parts of the country. In the Upper East Region, for instance, 67.40% of the delegates support Dr. Bawumia, compared to 30.72% for Hon. Agyapong. In the North East Region, 67.27% of the delegates support Dr. Bawumia, compared to 32% for Hon. Agyapong.
The survey also shows that 64.29% of the delegates from the Savannah Region support Dr. Bawumia, compared to 34.87% for Hon. Agyapong. Among the regions in the northern parts of the country, Dr. Bawumia has massive support from the Upper West, with 73.57% of delegates supporting him, compared to 25.79% for Hon. Agyapong. Furthermore, 67.90% of the delegates support Dr. Bawumia in the Northern Region, compared to 31.94% for Hon. Agyapong.
It emerged that both Dr. Bawumia and Hon. Agyapong won eight regions. Moreover, the outcome of the survey showed that Hon. Agyapong’s message to transform the Northern Region, North East Region, Savannah Region, Upper East Region, and Upper West Region into industrial zones has gained ground among delegates in the northern parts of the country, helping him gain more than 25% of support in each of the regions.
Hon. Agyapong also enjoys massive support from his home region, Central Region. The survey shows that he has 73.96% support of the delegates, compared to 25.47% for Dr. Bawumia. In the Western Region, Hon. Agyapong leads with 64.44% compared to 34.96 for Dr. Bawumia. The popularity of Hon. Kennedy Agyapong increases within the coastal areas, enjoying massive support from delegates from Western North, Volta Region, Greater Accra Region, and Oti Region. Analysis from the eleven-question turnout scale used indicates that the delegates trust Hon. Agyapong to establish more companies to employ the youth in the party and Ghanaians in general counting on his track record as a businessman.
Comparing the survey outcomes to the results from the super delegate’s conference on August 26, 2023, there will be surprises in appreciation of votes for some of the candidates. For instance, the survey shows Dr. Bawumia maintaining his lead in the Ashanti Region with 50.54%, compared to 44.54% by Hon. Agyapong. This result shows that Hon. Agyapong has closed the winning gap of Dr. Bawumia in the primaries, as compared to the super delegate elections. The survey findings anticipate a similar outcome in the Eastern Region, where Dr. Bawumia gained 52.24% of support from the delegates compared to 43.88% by Hon. Agyapong.
As it has already indicated, it will be a close contest between Dr. Bawumia and Hon. Agyapong. However, Hon. Agyapong will emerge victorious in the November 4, 2023 primaries. Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Francis Addai Nimo will both share the third and fourth place. However, their votes will not be significant enough to make a difference in their quest to lead the party.
In another survey conducted over the same period of 12,404 general voters, 31.1% of voters support Hon. Agyapong, compared to 30.8% for John Dramani Mahama and 22.3% for Dr. Bawumia; minor party candidates draw 5.6%, and 10.2% are undecided.
Voters Choice of President 2024
Candidate %
Kennedy Ohene Agyapong 31.1
John Dramani Mahama 30.8
Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia 22.3
Minor Candidates 5.6
Undecided 10.2
100
| N | 12,404 |
NOTE: Based on a nine-question turnout scale and the assumption that 75% of the voter population will cast their vote.
Source: www.thenewindependentonline.com
